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Originally Posted by MEnthusiast
OldCars,
While I do not have 30 years experience, in the 18 years or so I have been at it, my experience is with a regular car, you are right. Suppose its a Honda Civic. After several years someone who buys the car from you might want to put in their own aftermarket stereo, etc. They won't care nor want to reimburse you for the $1,500 you paid to Honda for their super awesome stereo.
However, I think with a car such as an M5, you are wrong. If you lease, its no big deal, the lease ends and you hand the car in. If you buy and now its a few years on and the initial craze has been satisfied and you have a car that is down on some of these options, my experience is most prospective buyers will be looking to get a car with the extra stereo options (not available here, just an example) or the leather, or the HUD, because I think a majority of M5s will be ordered this way and that is what the market will expect. Not having them means you cannot offer to the market what it will expect and that means you will lose many prospective buyers right off the bat. This equals more depreciation and more difficulty in your exit. For example, the residual on the M5 after 2-3 years will probably be in the high 60s to mid 70s. For lets say 70,000 (right about where the E39 sold brand new) I think a buyer would want all the toys. I know I would.
I think the E60 interior really benefits from the leather treatment so I do not agree that its overdone, but thats just a personal thing. I will tell you that the several full leather cars I have seen show nearly perfect quality. I have yet to see extended leather.
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Jerry,
Thanks for the feedback. I will unashamedly admit that I do not have much experience brokering BMWs, although I have previously owned and sold two: 1986 7-Series -which I bought inexpensively because it needed some very expensive engine work, and a 1999 540i Sport. I bought the 540i, one year old in 2000, certified, with 12,000 miles, from a reputable BMW dealer because I couldn't get a M5 at that time due to waiting lists, etc. The 540i was triple black, with many upgraded options, including the very expensive hands-free telephone system. There was only one on the lot, they were asking top price for the car because of it's options and limited availablility and I told them that although I liked the car, I didn't need/want the phone, or desire the extra cost wood trim, etc. They explained that they couldn't take these options out of the car, of course, but if I was a serious buyer for the car, they'd work a deal. Bottom line is that I was serious, it was in the middle of February and not a good time for lots to be sitting on a car with summer driving tires. I offered a take it or leave it cash deal and "stole" the car for about $500 more than what they paid for it. I substantiated my figure, ahead of time, by using Galves and the auction reports for current wholesale values.
In this scenario, it was more important for the dealer to move the car than to wait until they had the luxury of having shoppers come in during the warmer weather. However, I spent a few hundred dollars having the car professionally detailed/wet sanded and made more cosmetically perfect than what the dealership did and I resold the car 6 months later and made a small profit.
Most dealers and wholesalers look at the Galves and auction reports for the value of any used car. There are only minor adjustments, positive or negative, for the car and condition and mileage are the two most critical components. Even if you use a tool like Edmunds, or Kelly Blue Book to help you determine what a used car is worth, the real world doesn't care if it's been garaged kept, feed the best gasoline, or has a thousand dollars of Zaino polish on it.
Your suggestion that the M5 is not a "regular" car is true if you were comparing it to a $20,000 Civic. But, to be fair, compare the M5 to a Mercedes AMG, or a Porsche 911, or even the Corvette Z06. These cars are in high demand, people have waited on long lists to be the first to get them, built them and driven them sight unseen. First year ownership on any high end car is an exercise in expensive economics - some pay well over MSRP, then gas guzzler taxes, state taxes, destination, and the crippling first year depreciation, all of which the 2nd owner can benefit from.
I'll share with you that I just came out lease, 6months early, on a 2004 MB CLK AMG convertible. In October, 2003, this car allegedly had a 2 year "waiting list" for it. A friend of mine at a MB dealership calls me (because he knows I like to get in and out of cars) on a cancellation and says he's willing to flip the car at a very good price if I could act on it that day. I was at the dealership an hour later and negotiated a 3 year lease at $800 over invoice. For me, this meant lower payments and an unusually good opportunity for the car to hold value. The math happened to work well with the high residual vs. the payoff and the dealership offered to buy me out of the lease with no additional moneys on my part. In this regard, I didn't make money, per se, with the lease, but it didn't cost me as much for ownership had I stayed in the car for the duration. I also had a similar experience with a Lexus 430 - if you recall Lexus, too, had aggressive leasing on their cars a few years ago, however, the market demand didn't keep up as well as they had predicted and everybody bailed out of their leases when it expired because they weren't worth buying out.
To this, I am more partial to leasing newer cars, particularly since I like to get in and out of cars. I do realize the game changes when you talk about buying a car and then selling it. And this game will only work providing there is a buyer for your car who is willing to pay the price that you ask.
Fast forward 3 years from now. You paid $94K for the M5 - built to your custom ext./int. combo, and with the options that were important to you. Book value on the car, according to the BMW dealership, will be roughly 63% after 3 years (74% after two). I may be off by a point or two, but it would agree with your assessment that the car will be worth between $60-$70K after 2-3 years. The key here is who will pay that much for the car? If you try to trade the car into a dealer, they will want less, so they can certify and prepare it for dealership and make their markup on it. If you try to sell it privately, again, ask who will be the primary market for a 3 year old M? Look at the posts on this board - the M aficianados get upset if their new car is delivered with more than 10 miles on it - fearing that the dealer or lot boy took it for a joyride. While kudos to all who carefully follow break-in procedures and have regular maintenance, members on this board are already wary of cars being sold on the internet or dealer demo cars because you don't know for sure what has or hasn't been done to them.
Further, why would you be getting rid of the car after 3 years? Likely, you see the next model, or a different marque that you want. We can admit that the '06M is not perfect, there are documented flaws and issues that we are hoping will be corrected by the '07 or '08 models. We've all seen the industry darling fall from grace because the fickle reviewers find something new to rave about. It wasn't that long ago that PT Cruisers, Prowlers, Commerative Edition Z06 corvettes were going for way over MSRP, only to be had for a song a few years later. Even a Pontiac Solstice has a waiting list at +MSRP. Give me a break.

Again, I'm not looking to compare the M5 to a Prowler or Cruiser, but there is a reality here that many people who buy the M5 are using it as a 3rd car, or trophy, and there are those who thrive on owning the latest and greatest automobile. When the Prowler was popular, it was driven by some notable locals including a Philadelphia Philly who made his appearances in it. And there are some well-heeled women in the area who love driving the Mini-Cooper because its cute..
So, now it's March 2009, your car has 36,000 miles on, been garage kept, never been in an accident and you are drooling over the '09 M6 - the best automobile ever built in the universe. You've been on the waiting list for 2 years and can't wait to get the new one with the special colors, talking navigation, etc. Isn't it reasonable to assume that the M buyer in that time frame will want a new car, or maybe one that is just a year old with just a few thousand miles on it?
Where I am going with this, of course, is
my humble opinion that a buyer for a used M is not as particular about the car's options and upgrades. They will want the best price, lowest mileage car that they can get in a color that is acceptable to them. Perhaps, if there was an extremely coincidental situation where two cars, with similar color combos, and similar mileage where both for sale at the same time in a given area, I would acknowldge that the car with slightly more options (full leather, HUD) would win out, but only because it would be the better car of the comparison.
In the likely scenario that the only used M for sale is a low option car, it will still sell, not only because a lower price can be negotiated, but it becomes the "only game in town."
And because we are both speculating, it concludes that it is difficult to see in the future. Accordingly, let us enjoy our rides, live for the moment, because we don't know what tomorrow brings.
Best regards
Joel