Our cars will go the way of dinosaurs? - BMW M5 Forum and M6 Forums
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post #1 of 23 Old 18th May 2017, 04:27 AM Thread Starter
frisco9
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Our cars will go the way of dinosaurs?

Short, interesting, and possibly a sobering read.

Stanford Prof says fossil-fuel cars will vanish in 8 years as ?big oil? collapses | Inhabitat - Green Design, Innovation, Architecture, Green Building

I can't imagine a world like this, but if it isn't 8 years, it sure seems like it is inevitable in the next 10-15.

In my head, I always imagined holding onto my M5 forever and purchasing a nicer new petro car in the next year or two as another dd. This article makes me rethink both.
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post #2 of 23 Old 18th May 2017, 06:12 AM
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That will make these in collector condition worth what they were new. No question that around the corner are 200 HP 1000 Torque Daily drivers for us all. I don't know my greatest thrill of the M5 is being knocked back in my seat. At something like 5-1, hp - torque(I understand the measure is different) even a 100 hp car will produce enough torque to launch me back in the seat, albeit read light to red light. Anyway all moot just depends on your choices. 8 years I will not have my M5 but I sure as ... will have my turbo charged RS4, likely gas will be $200 a gallon but with the lack of demand maybe $200 for a 1000 gallons.
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post #3 of 23 Old 18th May 2017, 06:47 AM
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I've read similar articles before and I'm still skeptical of the timeline. I do see it happening at some point in the future, but definitely not within 8 years, or even 20 years for that matter. I remember reading about how fewer and fewer teenages are getting their driver's licenses due to the proliferation of Uber/Lyft drivers and interacting via social media instead of needing to drive over to your buddy's house. But it just seems like the profits of oil companies are so massive that they can take a significant hit and still be doing alright. They're not struggling by any means.

I also believe there's a sufficient percentage of the population that still truly enjoys the internal combustion engine and until we die out, there's hope for us yet.

'03 M5 | 981 Cayman S | @kian.ski
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post #4 of 23 Old 18th May 2017, 06:56 AM
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Marketing Propaganda...Just like the need for driverless cars. You don't want to drive - Take a Bus!
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post #5 of 23 Old 18th May 2017, 05:23 PM
StephenVA
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Thumbs down Wave the BS Flag on this one

Pointy heads a talking.....

This is just a simplified look into the future while ignoring all the possible unknown impacts to the prediction. This forecast, as with all the others, will fail the test of time, as they do not have any idea of what will be invented or discovered in the coming years that will change the development of transportation. I am still waiting on: flying cars that were promised in 1963, personal jet packs (Including for the local nursing home residents) and the nuclear powered cars from the 50's (Just think about that clean up issue after a fender bender!!!) This "theory" only works if everyone lives in a high rise, near a rail line, bus line, etc and only goes to and from a inner city for work and entertainment. No question, people did live just like that way back in the 40's and 50's, when cars costs per income were greater. Now if someone builds a cheap car at 10K (and can make a profit- Think INDIA) then all bets are off. Oh then it must pass 1,567 gov regs that will kill it off before it hits the streets here in the USA. Special note: This was actually done years ago in India with a $7K vehicle. In Italy they still have them and they look like the one below.

This particular prediction was kicked around in the 70's with the "Gas Crisis" (Which turned out to be about Gov interference in distribution systems and market swing corrections) and then died as technology allowed engineers to design cars that would provide lower emissions and great fuel economy.

Next up "global warming" projections (or any other favorite topic designed to provide continued flow of study fundings to keep these people on the gov tit for another lifetime. Have to have a "crisis" to study otherwise the money goes to someone else....
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post #6 of 23 Old 18th May 2017, 05:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frisco9 View Post
Stanford Prof says fossil-fuel cars will vanish in 8 years
People tend to over-estimate change in the short term, but under-estimate change in the long term. For example, just watch the Jetsons... they expected flying cars by now but had no way to predict cell phones or the internet.

8 years is too short a time frame for an end to fossil fuels. The infrastructure changes are just too massive. But at some point most cars will be able to run on 100% electricity most of the time. Hybrids will still be important for longer drives until there is faster charging battery technology.

The real "threat" to driving as we know it is driverless cars -- regardless of what fuel they use. Insurance for meat-driven cars will eventually be unaffordable.

City governments will have to raise taxes too since there will be no more speeding tickets.
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post #7 of 23 Old 18th May 2017, 05:40 PM
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Pass the BS flag to me.

Consider the source. Stanford. Professor. I.e. greener than a martian.

And Stephen Hawking says we all need to be living on Mars within 100 years because Earth will be uninhabitable.
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post #8 of 23 Old 18th May 2017, 06:09 PM
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This article is click-bait, but I like this discussion.

It's not the fuel, it's the driver. Most efficiency from driverless cars will be realized when they do not share the road with humans, so in 10-20 years, there will likely be bans for human drivers in major metropolitan areas. You won't think about what engine is in your car, because you won't have one—you'll just push a button and one will show up.

At this point I'll park my cars outside the ban radius, and get rid of the any that aren't a blast to drive.

Driverless cars will be as big a boon for modern society as the internet. They can't come soon enough.
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post #9 of 23 Old 18th May 2017, 06:31 PM
StephenVA
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Cheap cars just don't crash one as you will die.

In USD $3313.40, 93.61 mpg (NO emissions)
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post #10 of 23 Old 18th May 2017, 08:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StephenVA View Post
Cheap cars just don't crash one as you will die.

In USD $3313.40, 93.61 mpg (NO emissions)
TBNT. I'd rather walk than drive that lol.
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